This fallacy is about belief in future outcomes based on past outcomes, where a performer who has just done well (made many putts in a row, or free throws, or hit three home runs in a row) is believed to be capable of continuing to perform above average or even at very high levels. Empirical work shows this not to be true. I have always thought there is a flaw in most of this empirical work, though, because it ONLY considers the outcome of past shots, at-bats, etc., but does not consider (usually) whether the players themselves FEEL like they have a hot hand. In any case, it is another fallacy to add to our list.

Community content is available under CC-BY-SA unless otherwise noted.